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LCMS Convention Workbook St. Louis, Missouri — 2026, Page 156

Scan: The Lutheran Church—Missouri Synod
Transcription machine transcription, uncorrected

156

2026 Convention Workbook
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1,500 members. Of the 34 “underage” exceptions, as noted above, 11 were granted to geographical districts
in the WSW region and 16 in the ESE region.
Figure 3 shows, on a logarithmic axis, boxplot 4 histograms indicating the distribution of the confirmed
member sizes of the circuits in each district (the width of each box reflecting the number of circuits in each
district). The dark vertical line indicates the lower bound of 1,500 confirmed members; the two lighter
vertical lines are at 1,613 members and 1,734 members, the confirmed member sizes (all other things being
equal) a circuit would need to have in 2029 to meet the requirement of 1,500 members, after a typical 7%
triennial decline, and in 2032, respectively. The darker red dots to the left of the vertical lines represent
electoral circuits that received exceptions in 2026; the lighter red dots, those that may require exceptions or
realignment or combination of ad�acent �isitation circuits, all other things being equal, for 2029 (77 circuits) and
2032 (an additional 45 circuits). The task force, in recommending elimination of exceptions, does so aware
that where these threshold lines move well into the “box” of the two center quartiles (and even to or beyond
the median for districts like SELC, MDS, AT, NJ, SE, and NOW), realignment of visitation circuits or
combination of visitation circuits into increasingly large electoral circuits will be necessary.

Figure 4: Confirmed Membership and Congregations of 2026 Electoral Circuits by Region (SY2024 data; confirmed
membership thresholds at 1,���, 1,613, and 1,734; see explanation of Figure 3 in text), �ndicating Combined Circuits
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3. Characterization of Confirmed Membership Change

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The rate of confirmed membership change over time is a factor in the “stability” of circuit designations,
electoral circuit combinations, and the rate of requests for exceptions. Electoral circuit qualification is based
on the statistics gathered in the year prior to the convention (i.e., the 2026 convention relied on SY2024
confirmed membership data as of December 31, 2024, gathered by May 2025; the 2029 convention will rely
on SY2027 data). District alignment of visitation regions, usually done at district conventions in the year

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Figure 4 adds another dimension of the 2026 convention circuit apportionment, indicating on the vertical
axis the number of congregations involved in each electoral circuit as well as (by the color of the dot) the
number of visitation circuits included in each combined electoral circuit. Confirmed member thresholds
are indicated as in Figure 3. The figure also distinguishes by color those electoral circuits formed of two or
three adjacent visitation circuits. See Whitepaper I for analysis, which is generally unchanged.
Relative to Figure 4 in Whitepaper I, it may be observed that a significant reduction in exceptions was
achieved by formation of more circuits with more than 20 congregations each, beyond the upper bound set
in existing bylaws. The task force recommends removing these upper bounds (20 congregations and 10,000
confirmed members), as smaller congregations will mean the size of circuits will likely continue to increase,
particularly within the WSW and ESE regions.

A boxplot represents a “distribution curve” (ideally, the familiar “bell curve”) coming up out of the page. The colored box represents
the middle quartiles (half the data points) with the divider at the median. The “whiskers” protruding from the box represent the
outer quartiles, but to a distance no more than 1.5 times the interquartile distance. Outliers beyond the whiskers are marked as black
dots.

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Figure 5: Triennial Rate of Reported Confirmed Member Gain / Loss by District / Region, 1994–2024

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OFFICER, BOARD, AND COMMISSION REPORTS

Figure 3: Distribution, Confirmed Membership of 2026 Electoral Circuits (SY2024 data; thresholds at 1,500, 1,613, and
1,734; see text)