LCMS Convention Workbook St. Louis, Missouri — 2026, Page 152

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for 2026, 31% for 2029, and 41% for 2032. If the confirmed member requirement were reduced to 1200, the
exception rate could be held to 11% for the 2029 convention (but would likely rise to 20% for 2032). Lowering
the confirmed member requirement to 1200 would likely allow 6 additional visitation circuits in 2029 due
to splitting of electoral circuits combined for 2023, but these, too, would likely revert by 2032. It should be
noted that in the “congregation requirement” dimension, closures, mergers, and charters are not modeled.

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Table 3: Potential for increase in number of electoral circuits relative to an “optimal” baseline and proportion of resulting circuits
requiring exceptions after a 3-year interval (present data; no accounting for future change)

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Congregations

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Confirmed Members in SY2022 (present)
800
1000
1200
1500
68% / 91%
50% / 70%
34% / 52%
14% / 29%
52% / 73%
39% / 58% 26% / 44%
11% / 26%
37% / 55%
28% / 45%
19% / 35%
6% / 20%
22% / 38%
16% / 32%
11% / 26%
– / 14%
Potential increase in convention voting delegation given
various changes in circuit minimums, relative to optimal
(602 circuits) / (ital.) 2023 actual (532 circuits)

800
28%
22%
14%
12%

Confirmed Members in SY2025
1000
1200
1500
34%
42%
47%
30%
36%
44%
26%
33%
39%
20%
28%
35%
Proportion of “optimally formed” circuits
likely to require exceptions after 3 years (of
8–9% conf. membership decline)

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Table 3 reflects formation of circuits based on present statistics, a definite upper bound on increases. Given
that 2029 is the first convention for which changed requirements would take effect, and given that districts
tend to desire some stability in circuit formation, Table 4 shows the change in number of circuits relative to
optimal formation at current parameters and relative to 2023 counts, for a variety of parameters, assuming
districts form circuits with the assumption of an 8–9% triennial confirmed membership decline and forming circuits
that will likely be valid in 2029. For more conservative parameter changes (e.g., to 6 congregations and 1,200
members) this likely better estimates the “upper bound” on convention size impact relative to 2023.

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Table 4: Potential for increase in number of 2029 electoral circuits (formed on the assumption of an 8–9% triennial membership
decline) relative to an “optimal” baseline and proportion of resulting circuits requiring exceptions for the 2032 convention

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Confirmed Members in SY2027 (2029 Conv.)
800
1000
1200
1500
69% / 76%
48% / 55%
31% / 37%
10% / 15%
56% / 63%
39% / 46%
26% / 31%
7% / 12%
41% / 48%
31% / 36%
19% / 25%
3% / 8%
28% / 34%
21% / 26%
12% / 17%
– /5%
Potential increase in convention 2029 voting delegation given
various changes in circuit minimums, relative to
optimal (556 circuits) / (ital.) 2023 actual (532 circuits)

Conf. Mbrs. in SY2030 (2032 Conv.)
800
1000
1200
1500
49%
58%
63%
68%
40%
48%
59%
66%
31%
45%
53%
62%
23%
36%
47%
57%
Proportion of “optimally formed”
circuits likely to require
exceptions after another 3 years

(a) With a variety of parameters, regionally

(b) With 6 congs. and 1200 conf. mbrs., by district

Figure 7: Change in electoral circuits, relative to 2023 actual, using Max-P and forming for 2029 with the assumption of
continued 8–9% triennial confirmed membership decline
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The interaction of congregation confirmed membership sizes, counts, and geographical factors, and their
peculiar combinations in the different districts and regions mean that variation of parameters does not have
a uniform effect across the Synod. Figure 7 shows the potential for relative increase in the number of electoral
circuits as estimated by the Max-P algorithm, configured to form circuits with sufficient excess confirmed
members today to survive a continued 8–9% triennial decline until the 2029 convention, for (a) a variety of
parameter combinations, by region; and (b) for circuits with a minimum 6 congregations and 1,200
members, by district. In (a), variation in the confirmed membership requirement is along the x-axis;
variation in the congregation count requirement is indicated by the different line styles. Variation in the
latter requirement has a more pronounced effect in the regions with a greater proportion of relatively larger
congregations. ESE and WSW regions struggle to add circuits at a rate similar to other regions (of course,
their “baseline” includes a greater proportion of exceptional circuits already, so they have more “negative
inertia” to overcome). Perhaps paradoxically, though, lowered requirements would allow other regions
(especially in the GP region, but for reasonable parameters also in the GL and CEN regions) to add circuits at
a higher rate than these could.

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Taking one example of moderate change to parameters in Figure 7(b), with 6 congregations and 1,200
members required, one can see a great variety in the ability of districts to add new circuits, ranging from
increases at or below 10% (AT, SO, NJ, SW Districts and all of the WSW Region except for RM District) to over
50% (NEB, NW, SD). 20 Such potential swings in representation are neither “right” nor “wrong,” but are
significant to note and perhaps of broader variance than might be expected, even in districts that are not
among the smallest. Note also that these figures include no exceptional circuits, for which some provision (even
if limited, either with empirical rationales, hard ratios, or spatial or numerical limits) might presumably
continue to be made.

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6. Alternate Requirements for Electoral Circuit Formation

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Similar circuit formation experiments were performed with alternative requirements for electoral circuit
formation, including requiring 4, 5, 6, or 7 parishes instead of congregations, or requiring 2, 3, or 4 installed
pastors in addition to the existing requirements for congregations and confirmed members. The former

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Percentages set in Roman type are relative to optimally formed circuits, given current requirements (7 congregations and 1,500
members); on SY2022 data, 602 such circuits are possible, 13% more electoral circuits than are currently formed (15% of which are
currently exceptional). Italicized percentages are relative to the actual number of 2023 electoral circuits, of which there are 532.

District-level rates of potential representation change range from 1.11 to 1.75, with a mean of 1.37 and standard deviation of 0.17.
Comparing “optimal” circuits of 7 congregations and 1,500 members to those of 6 congregations and 1,200 members (using the
“optimal” instead of 2023 actual as baseline), district-level rates of potential representation change range from 1.11 to 1.50, with a
mean of 1.21 and standard deviation of 0.075. A significant amount of the potential change and the variability in the potential change
is due to pre-existing differences in how “optimally” districts have selected circuits (see all prior caveats on the sense of “optimal”).

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OFFICER, BOARD, AND COMMISSION REPORTS

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It must at the same time be asked, however, if districts were to take advantage of changed circuit
requirements to realign circuits to optimize for representation, how significant the change in proportional
representation or in the total convention size would be. A significant increase in convention size might have
undesirable budgetary and logistical complications, and a significant potential for districts to increase their
proportion of representation, potentially at the cost of visitation or other “working” aspects of current
circuits may also raise appropriate concern. The previously described Max-P algorithm was used to
“optimally” form electoral circuits under a wide range of parameters, based on SY2022 data. Table 3 shows,
for a range of congregation and confirmed membership requirements, the theoretical potential increase in
the size of the national convention (left), 19 if all districts redistricted “optimally,” and the percentage of
optimally formed circuits that would require exceptions after the elapse of three years (right).

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Congregations

2026 Convention Workbook

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