LCMS Convention Workbook St. Louis, Missouri — 2026, Page 147

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R59.1

2023 Res. 9-06A Task Force
To Evaluate Electoral Circuit Parameters

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Whitepaper I

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John W. Sias, Secretary
September 9, 2024 (Revised October 4, 2024)

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This whitepaper is intended to supplement the historical context found in the rationale of 2023 Res. 9-06A
(Proc., pp. 206–9) with statistical and historical data generally informative for the task force’s early work. It
intends to cover the following areas:

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A description of electoral and visitation circuits today, statistically and historically considered
A brief characterization of current electoral circuits
An overview of confirmed membership change and variation therein throughout the Synod
A historical overview of selected recent changes to formation requirements and procedures of
circuits, visitation and electoral, that have been proposed in relatively recent Synod convention
overtures (supplementing the changes made over time, detailed in the charging resolution)
A study of the potential effect on Synod convention size and representation change that could occur
in a number of hypothetical proposals of various configurations
A study of alternate requirements for electoral circuit formation, including a parish rather than
congregation basis and addition of an installed, non-SMP pastor requirement
A study of codependent bounds for electoral circuit formation, in which circuits with a surplus of
congregations can have a deficit of members and vice-versa
Basic contextual data on member congregations and pastors in the circuits of the Synod

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These data are, of course, not exhaustive of the material or perspectives the task force may need to consider,
but they are intended to offer a well-considered starting point for the task force’s work.

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1. Electoral and Visitation Circuits Today, Statistically and Historically Considered

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Since the 1969 convention of the Synod (due to 1967 Res. 5-18), electoral circuits have consisted of “either one
or two 1 adjacent visitation circuits, 2 as shall be determined by the district board of directors on the basis of
the following requirements: each pair of delegates shall represent from 7 to 20 member congregations,
involving an aggregate confirmed membership ranging from 1,500 to 10,000 3” (Bylaw 3.1.2 [a]).

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their number. This has contributed to at least one significant and damaging controversy, related to the 2004
convention (See R1-8-01 and Addendum 1, 2007 Workbook, pp. 14–18).
Supposing that no circuits are realigned or recombined from their 2023 configurations, and assuming a
uniform 8% triennial drop in confirmed membership (see below), we anticipate that 22% of 2023 electoral
circuits would require exceptions for the 2026 convention (based on SY2022 data, one year newer than that
used to validate the 2023 circuits, 15% already are exceptional, compared to the 11% that were a year before).
Some macro-level historical context will be valuable. While changes to the original, 1872 representational
formula of “between two and seven congregations” attempted in 1893 and made in 1917 (to “five and ten”)
and 1944 (to “ten and fifteen”) were to control the burgeoning size of the Synod convention in a growing
Synod, the 1967 changes had the principal effect of aligning visitation and electoral circuits across the Synod
(these were already fully aligned, following 1917 guidance, in about a third of the districts) and a secondary
effect of somewhat increasing the convention size. The 1969 convention met with delegates from 478
domestic electoral circuits, 4 representing 5,486 member congregations and 1,877,799 confirmed members
(1968 Statistical Yearbook), an increase from 424 domestic electoral circuits in 1967, under the 1944 rule.
For comparison, the 2023 convention allowed for delegates from 532 electoral circuits, 475 meeting the
requirements and 57 having “underage” exceptions. These 532 electoral circuits represented 5,775 member
congregations and 1,395,076 confirmed members.
Figure 1 provides some recent historical context, 1998–2023. The line graphs indicate the number of
confirmed members in the Synod divided by 1,500 (the lower bound for electoral circuit formation; for
comparison, in 1968, this figure would have been 1,252, slightly below 1998’s 1,301) and the number of
member congregations divided by 7 (again, the lower bound; for comparison, the 1968 figure was 783).
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“Exceptions to these requirements may be made only by the President of the Synod upon a request of a
district board of directors” (Bylaw 3.1.2 [b]). Since 1998, the proportion of electoral circuits allowed to stand
due to granted exceptions has ranged from 3% and 9%, in 1998 and 2001, respectively, to 14% in 2004,
hovering between 10–12% since, with the exception of a low 7% exception ratio in 2016. Bylaws neither
specify any underlying basis upon which these exceptions are to be evaluated, nor specify any limitation on

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OFFICER, BOARD, AND COMMISSION REPORTS

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Circuits and Congregations / 7
and Confirmed Members / 1500

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1998

In a few cases, three adjacent, in an exception not allowed for explicitly in Bylaw 3.1.2 but inferred as one of the possible grantable
exceptions.
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The visitation circuits themselves are established by districts (that is, by district conventions, unless a district convention has
explicitly authorized a district board of directors to carry this out) “according to geographical criteria.” There is technically no lower
or upper limit (other than practical ones) on the size of a visitation circuit, other than that one should ordinarily not exceed the upper
bound for the related electoral circuit, either in number of confirmed members or of member congregations, and that it should take
no more than two adjacent visitation circuits to form one electoral circuit. Practical limits, lower and upper, may be inferred from
the functions—important in their own right—described in Bylaw chapter 5.

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2010

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2016

2019

2023

Regular

Except ?

Except < M

Except < C

Except < C < M

Combined w/ Adjacent(s)

Congs/7

ConfMbrs/1500

It has proven in some instances not possible, when assembling electoral circuits, to satisfy a lower bound (for example, on confirmed
members) without transgressing an upper bound (number of member congregations) or combining more than two visitation
circuits. While the “overage” exceptions are exceptional circuits, it is the “underage” exceptions that have been the principal concern.
In this whitepaper, exceptions may be assumed to include only the “underage” exceptions (fewer than 7 member congregations or
1,500 confirmed members), unless the “overage” exceptions are explicitly mentioned.

This number excludes, in the interest of comparability, three Canadian districts and the Argentina/Brazil District, all of which have
become independent church bodies since (with the exception of certain Canadian congregations remaining in the English and SELC
Districts. There were at least 490 domestic electoral circuits in 1971 and 503 in 1973, changes roughly proportional to the confirmed
member growth of the Synod in the period.

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2026 Convention Workbook

Figure 1: Trends in LCMS Electoral Circuits, 1998–2023 Conventions