LCMS Convention Workbook St. Louis, Missouri — 2004, Page 17

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SYNODICAL REPORTS 17

R1-8-01
Mission 21st Century Task Force
Mission in the 21st Century

“Therefore go and make disciples of all nations,
baptizing them in the name of the Father
and of the Son and of the Holy Spirit,
and teaching them to obey everything I have commanded you.
And surely I will be with you always, to the very end of the age.”
(Matt. 28:19-20)

At the dawn of the 21st century, the people of The Lutheran
Church—Missouri Synod face a frontier as uncharted as their an-
cestors met when they established homes and churches in the
United States more than 150 years ago. This church body, which
sometimes describes itself as an immigrant church, exists in an
American culture as alien as the forefathers encountered. Just as
then, people speak many languages and observe traditions from all
continents in an America that is changing rapidly.

Forests and prairies are now freeways, subdivisions, skyscrap-
ers, and shopping malls, and the view reminds us of what St. Paul
saw from the hill in Athens. There are religions of all kinds: Mus-
lim, Hindu, Wicca, Catholic, Protestant, plus “new religions”
formed from influences of post-modernism, New Age spiritualism,
secularism, even atheism. People seek the “unknown god” by striv-
ing for power, money, and self-gratification. From personal expe-
rience, nearly every LCMS member knows friends, sons, daugh-
ters, brothers, sisters, even spouses who no longer consider the
Lutheran church—or any church—relevant or necessary.

On this frontier, the name of Jesus Christ is used for cursing
rather than blessing, and the cross is merely a decorative piece of
jewelry. Even those who trace generations of family in the United
States may speak a different language—language that doesn’t
know the Apostles’ Creed or the Lord’s Prayer, that doesn’t com-
prehend words such as sin or Gospel or grace—and more than a
few may never have been inside a church.

This is the context of the 21st century that lies before the people
and congregations of The Lutheran Church—Missouri Synod. Our
Lord gives us His Great Commission, just as He has given it to His
people for 20 centuries. He calls us to leave the safety and security
of our homeland, to share the faith of our forefathers, to live in mis-
sion on a new frontier.

The Mission 21st Century Task Force

Concerned about the decline of membership in The Lutheran
Church—-Missouri Synod and the need for the Synod to actively
pursue mission in the United States as well as overseas, President
Gerald Kieschnick appointed the Mission 21st Century Task Force
in the fall of 2002. Dr. Kieschnick gave the Task Force these in-
structions:
¢ Identify the major reasons for losses in membership.
¢ Suggest changes to return to faithfulness to our Lord’s mission in

the 21st century.
* Develop resolutions for the 2004 LCMS convention that capture
the mission heart of the delegates and can effect change.

The Task Force invited the ideas and observations of many
church leaders, including seminary presidents, faculty, pastors,
Synod staff, and District staff, plus experts from outside the Synod.
For wider input, an Internet survey received comments from 1,843
people as they responded to the question “Do you believe the
LCMS, as a church body, has as its primary focus the Great Com-
mission, i.e., that its primary focus is to reach the lost for Christ?”

Trends Affecting Membership

The Lutheran Church—Missouri Synod grew significantly dur-
ing the 1950s. It was the era of the baby boom as the United States

rebounded after World War IT. When baptized membership peaked

in 1972, the Synod had reached 166 percent of its 1950 member-

ship.

* Baptisms—Child Baptisms in LCMS congregations peaked in
1959 at 82,767. By 2002 the number was 35,606.

* Baptized Membership—LCMS baptized membership peaked in
1972 at 2,781,297. In 2002 baptized members numbered
2,512,714, about the same as in 1962.

¢ Natural Increase—The excess of Baptisms over member deaths
peaked in 1959 at 68,070. Forty years later, natural increase was
23,163.

¢ Confirmed Membership—Confirmed membership peaked in
1976 at 2,026,336. In 2002 the Synod counted 1,907,923 baptized
members.

¢ Adult Gains—The number of adult gains was fairly stable be-
tween 1970 and 1999 at 39,000 to 41,000 annually. The highest
number of adult gains was in 1957 with 61,104; the lowest num-
ber was in 2000 with 35,258.

¢ Net Outreach—Net outreach (adult gains minus adults removed)
was positive from 1953 through 1968. Except for three years be-
tween 1969 and 2000, the Synod has experienced negative net
outreach. ;

All this has occurred during a time when U.S. population nearly
doubled (from 152 million to 284 million). LCMS baptized mem-
bership in 1950 was 1,674,901. Today it is 2,512,714. Over 50
years, LCMS membership has grown by only 50 percent. (Note
that the numbers used here are for U.S. congregations only.)

Aging institutions

Having peaked in baptized membership in 1962, The Lutheran
Church—Missouri Synod is slowly shrinking. The process appears
to be accelerating in this century: baptized membership declined
by more than 60,000 since 1991, and confirmed membership de-
creased by 33,000.

Since 1950 the number of LCMS congregations has grown sig-
nificantly. More than half of LCMS congregations were organized
before 1950, and many are now in rural communities or inner-city
locations where they experience outward migration of population,
pastoral vacancies, aging members, and declining membership.

A large number of congregations, and therefore the Synod as a
whole, are aging. Studies of the life cycles of organizations have
shown that they reflect a vitality and growth in early years, fol-
lowed by a state of equilibrium. At that point, an organization can
fall into a decline and, unless revitalization occurs, spurred by an
intervening event or activity, the decline will continue until recov-
ery is almost impossible. For congregations, the most rapid growth
is during the first 20 years; once they reach 50 years and equilib-
rium, they face the possibility of decline.

* The largest growth rates, especially in natural increase and net
outreach, are among congregations that were established between
1986 and 1995. Generally, these congregations are more likely to
be located in areas of commercial and residential] development.

¢ Outreach to non-Anglo populations, as reflected in the Pentecost
2000 achievements, also have resulted in new ministries and po-
tential congregations that are not yet listed on our records.

¢ Half of the Synod’s 6,142 congregations have fewer than 200
confirmed members; 30 percent have between 200 and 499 mem-
bers; 12 percent have 500 to 999 members; and 5 percent have
1,000 or more.

* About two-thirds of LCMS congregations average fewer than 160
at worship per Sunday. For every congregation with an average
worship attendance exceeding 500, nine congregations average
100 or less.

Evangelism as a priority

The facts raise the question whether evangelism has been a high
priority. At no time during the growth of the 1950s did adult gains

2004 Convention Workbook