LCMS Convention Proceedings St. Louis, Missouri — 1967, Page 75

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EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR’S REPORT

We Have a Great Work to Do

Comments on Membership Growth of The Lutheran
Church — Missouri Synod from 1940 to 1966

Church membership growth is a very complex prob-
lem and is affected by a number of factors which will
cause variations in the growth trend. Many of these
factors are unknown or unidentifiable, and even those
which are known are frequently uncontrollable. The
purpose of this report is simply to describe recent mem-
bership trends. This description can help congregations
evaluate their own performance and help them estimate
the task which lies before them, for synodical member-
ship trends are nothing more than the composite of the
trends of 6,000 congregations.

The report will deal primarily with the net gain in
membership, i.e., the total gains less the total losses.
Our growth will be determined by these two factors
(total gains and total losses in relationship to each
other). In most cases membership growth will be
measured by the growth rate (which is the percent of
net gains); for example, a growth rate of 4 percent
means that for every 100 members at the beginning of
the year there was a net gain of 4 additional members
during the year.

I

Look at Chart I for the overall picture for the last
quarter century. It depicts the trends of the total
membership of The Lutheran Church — Missouri Synod
in the U.S.A., the confirmed membership of the Mis-
souri Synod in the U.S.A., alongside the total mem-
bership of all religious bodies in the United States.
Figures will be presented only for the United States, but
the general trend in both Canada and South America
is very similar to that of the United States. Our over-
seas fields individually represent different situations.

This chart shows that the Missouri Synod experi-
enced a rapid growth from 1940 to 1960 and that the
membership growth rate began to tail off in 1960 and
has continued to decrease since 1960. That is to say,
prior to 1960 the growth rate was increasing at an
accelerating rate whereas in the 1960s the growth has
been decelerating.

It should be noted that the growth rate in the 1960s
would have been even lower and more marked on the
chart except for the grouped additions from the Synod-
ical Conference missions in 1962 and the NELC con-
gregations in 1963.

In short:

1. In 1966 the growth of 1.02 percent was the lowest

’ since 1942, early in World War II.

2. If the decelerating trend continues unhindered at
- the present rate, by 1970 The Lutheran Church — Mis-
souri Synod may be losing more members than it is
Zaining.

_ 3. If the growth. trend had continued during the
1960s as it had during the 1950s, we would have approx-

75

imately 110,000 more baptized members today than we
actually can report.

The same chart shows that the trend for communi-
cant members, although it has decreased somewhat in
the same period, is not so dramatic or drastic in its
decrease. One factor which has held up is that we
are still receiving as junior confirmands the almost
grown-up result of the post-World War II baby boom.
Likely confirmed membership will begin to decrease
more sharply once we are past the baby-boom children.

The trend for all American religious bodies is basi-
cally the same as ours. Their decrease started somewhat
earlier than ours but was not so drastic, just as their
previous growth was not so rapid as ours.

il

Chart II shows about the same items as Chart I in
a different form. This graph depicts the comparative
growth rates of The Lutheran Church — Missouri Synod
in the U.S.A., the United States population, and all
religious bodies in America. It shows:

1. From 1940 to 1960 The Lutheran Church — Mis-
souri Synod grew twice as fast as did the United States
population.

2. From 1960 to 1966 The Lutheran Church — Mis-
souri Synod grew about 1% times as fast as the United
States population.

3. The Lutheran Church—Missouri Synod has grown
faster than the religious bodies in America generally
except for the 1940s (which include World War Il
years).

4, All three groups are down so far in the 1960s in
comparison with the 1950s.

How explain the decrease? It might be because
there are smaller total gains, or it might be because
there are more losses. Let us for the moment divide
the total membership of The Lutheran Church — Mis-
souri Synod in the United States only into children and
adults, looking first at the children and then at the
adults, or confirmed members.

A. Children iil

Chart IIL shows that the total number of children
baptized year by year was down substantially in’ the
1960s. The annual rate of baptisms is the number. of
children baptized per 1,000 members and is compared
with the birth rate, which is the number of children
born annually per 1,000 population. Both are down in
the 1960s, but the decrease from the peak in 1957 in the
rate of children baptized is much more drastic.

IV

There is no direct statistic measuring total losses.
Chart IV compares the children baptized with the
number of juniors confirmed 14 years later. We could
assume that if there were an increasing number of