# LCMS Convention Workbook_St. Louis Missouri_2026_S159
# Machine transcription, uncorrected — CHI Digital Archive (demonstration)

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circuits that have for other reasons a low ratio of installed pastors to congregations. These results were not
presented in Whitepaper I but became relevant later in the task force’s work. This update will present data
on parish-based formation, which is an idea the task force is recommending as bringing circuit formation
into line with other Pfarrgemeinde-based processes (see 2023 Res. 9-12 regarding this concept), in which,
from the very early days of the Synod, the sum of congregations served by one pastor received, together, one
pastor and one lay vote (see also Bylaw 2.5.5).

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�able 5: Percent of 2026 con�ention circuits (assuming no realignment or recombination of �isitation circuits� and a 7% triennial
drop in con�rmed membership� that �ould re�uire e�ceptions or realignment/combination for the 2029–2035 conventions

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Parishes

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Confirmed Members
800 1000
1200
1500
0.2% 1.0%
3.0%
14.9%
0.2% 1.0%
3.0%
14.9%
1.2% 2.0%
4.0%
15.7%
7.4% 8.2% 10.3%
21.1%9
��202� pro�� (202� con�ention�

Confirmed Members
800 1000 1200
1500
0.4% 1.0% 4.0% 23.9%
0.4% 1.0% 4.0% 23.9%
1.4% 2.0% 5.0% 24.5%
7.6% 8.2% 11.1% 29.2%
��20�0 pro�� (20�2 con�ention�

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�able 6� �otential for increase in number of 202� electoral circuits (formed on the assumption of a 7% triennial membership
decline) relative to 2026 actual and proportion of resulting circuits re�uiring e�ceptions for the 20�2 con�ention

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Parishes

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Conf. Mbrs. in SY2030 (2032 Conv.)
800
1000
1200
1500
23%
25%
35%
41%
16%
21%
30%
35%
14%
16%
24%
34%
9%
13%
20%
28%
�roportion of �optimally formed� circuits
li�ely to fall belo� minimums after another � years

Table 6 shows, similar to Table 4 as based on congregation counts, the potential increase in voting delegation
size if a variety of parish-based metrics were to be adopted and if districts were to form optimal circuits based
on SY2027 projections for the 2029 convention (a realignment far more extensive than dealing with fraction
of circuits that would have become exceptional by that time, left sub-table of Table 5 above). Adopting a
standard of 6 parishes and 1,500 members would allow a theoretical ma�imum increase in the 2029 voting
convention delegation, relative to 2026, of 13% (17–18% in CEN, GL, and GP regions and 4–6% in WSW and

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8. Basic Contextual Data on the Member Congregations and Pastors in the Circuits of the Synod

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Geographic factors are significant when considering the reasonability of circuit formation. Figure 9 shows,
for 2026 visitation and electoral circuits, the distribution, by district, of electoral circuit radii, expressed in

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Figure 9: �inimum radius (miles� of 2023 visitation (left� and electoral circuits (right�� by district and region�
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�ee general comments and data (changed but not dramatically since the �rst presentation� and commentary on
eligible installed pastors and pastoral full-time e�ui�alents in �hitepaper �� �ection ��

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9. Concluding Thoughts

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This whitepaper updates selected portions of the data presented to the task force in support of its work,
focusing especially on changes due to 2025–26 circuit realignments and adding data on parish-based circuit
requirements. The changes proposed by the task force will provide, for most circuits, a stable transition
between 2026 and 2029 conventions. This document attempts to provide a rough numerical framework for
evaluating the task force’s conservative change—which will over time reduce the size of the convention by
keeping representational proportions consistent with the post-1969 historical norm—in the context of many

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These are not evenly distributed: 20.0% of non-geographical circuits, 20.4% of those in the WSW region, and 30.1% of those in the
ESE region would likely require exceptions to maintain 2026 circuits in 2029, with 6.2–11.1% requiring them in other regions. If the
7/1500 requirement is held, in three triennia’s time, 33.0% of circuits would have to be revised, as indicated: 46.7% of nongeographical circuits, 50.6% of those in ESE, 46.2% of those in WSW, and 19.3–27.5% of those in the other regions.

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miles 10 (these are displayed on a logarithmic scale due to the great variation in the geographic size of
electoral circuits). South Wisconsin and Northern Illinois (and the Great Lakes Region, in general) have the
most compact visitation circuits, with a median radius below 12 miles (mi.). Among geographical districts,
Wyoming and Montana have the highest median radii at 70 and 88 mi., respectively (these increase to 132
and 163 mi. for electoral circuits, when combination is taken into account); Great Plains and West-Southwest
regions are similarly challenged with relatively large visitation circuits that tend to combine into
significantly larger electoral circuits (WSW has a mean radius of 46 mi. for visitation and 61 mi. for electoral;
ESE, 37/45 mi.; GP 34/36 mi.; CEN 27/31 mi.; GL 17/18 mi.; this is, of course, even more the case with the
nongeographic districts, at 111/222 mi.).

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�he tas� force determined not to pursue this model further� so updated data is not presented here�

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�ue to issues with projection, the radius of circuits involving �awaii and the Church of All Nations in Hong Kong are inaccurate.

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2026 Convention Workbook

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Confirmed Members in SY2027 (2029 Conv.)
800
1000
1200
1500
81%
62%
46%
24%
62%
49%
38%
19%
46%
36%
28%
13%
30%
24%
18%
7%
Potential increase in convention 2029 voting delegation
gi�en �arious changes in circuit minimums�
relative to 2026 actual (497 circuits)

7. Codependent Bounds for Electoral Circuit Formation (“Relieved Model” )

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Confirmed Members
800 1000
1200
1500
0.8% 2.0%
6.6% 32.4%
0.8% 2.0%
6.6% 32.4%
1.8% 3.0%
7.6% 32.8%
8.0% 9.3% 13.7% 37.0%
��20�� pro�� (20�� con�ention�

Table 5 shows the percent of 2026 convention electoral circuits requiring realignment or recombination for
a variety of parish-based requirement models over the next three conventions. As indicated in the leftmost
sub-table, if the bylaw is amended to require at least six parishes in an electoral circuit and the current 1,500
confirmed members, 15.7% of current circuits are estimated to require adjustment before 2029, with an
additional 8.8% requiring attention by 2030 and 8.3% by 2033.

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OFFICER, BOARD, AND COMMISSION REPORTS

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Considering electoral circuits formed for the 2026 convention, if seven parishes were to be required, rather
than seven congregations, an additional 6.5% of present circuits would be rendered exceptional (as elsewhere,
these are not evenly distributed, striking districts making more use of multi-congregation parishes and
having fewer very small congregations: 1.1% additional in WSW, 8.3% in GP, 3.0% in CEN, 17.6% in GL, and
1.2% in ESE Regions). Reducing the requirement to six parishes from seven congregations renders 1% or fewer
more circuits exceptional at present and in the next three triennial projections. This is the recommendation
of the task force.

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ESE regions due to relatively fewer circuits with large parishes and relatively less importance at present of
the multi-congregation parish model; it must be remembered, of course, that the WSW and ESE regions also
are starting off with a “baseline” exception rate much higher than the other regions. With exceptions
forbidden the model, they are “playing catchup” with regions that have already adjusted to larger circuits
made up of smaller congregations).

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