# LCMS Convention Workbook_St. Louis Missouri_2026_S155
# Machine transcription, uncorrected — CHI Digital Archive (demonstration)

R59.2

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2023 Res. 9-06A Task Force
To Evaluate Electoral Circuit Parameters

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Whitepaper II

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John W. Sias, Secretary
February 13, 2026

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1. Electoral and Visitation Circuits Today, Statistically and Historically Considered

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Had no circuits been realigned or recombined from their 2023 configurations, 22% of electoral circuits would
have required exceptions for the 2026 convention (confirming pre-convention estimates, Whitepaper I,
Table 2). Significant realignment, however, by several districts and a disciplined approach, by the Office of
the President, to granting exceptions, has resulted in only a 7% exception rate for 2026. This reflects the
general impression of the task force that a reduction in convention size is reasonable, and reasonably
achievable, within essentially the current framework of requirements.

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Comparing lines to bars in Figure 1, the voting size of the convention 2 has only recently begun to trend
moderately downward in response to slight decline in the number of member congregations (5,672 in 2026
vs. 6,033 in 2004) and significant decline in confirmed membership (1.29M in 2026 vs. 1.95M in 1998). There
were 497 electoral circuits in 2026 compared to a 2004 high of 628, a decline of 21% in a period that saw a
32% decline in confirmed membership and a 6% decline in the number of member congregations.
There is a stable, regional non-uniformity. Figure 2 shows, for each region, in 2010 and 2026, the proportion
of confirmed members and congregations, plus the number of exceptions, all of which contribute to the
number of electoral circuits, and the number of non-SMP parish pastors. Exceptions tend to be granted
disproportionately in the ESE and WSW regions, offsetting a relatively lower number of confirmed members
in those regions and a commensurate challenge forming compliant electoral circuits—a long-term pattern,
as the comparative data from 2010 indicate. 3

The 2026 convention will comprise delegates from 497 electoral circuits, 461 meeting the requirements and
34 having “underage” exceptions. These 497 electoral circuits represent 5,672 member congregations and
1,291,318 confirmed members. Figure 1 updates Whitepaper I, Figure 1, to include also the 2026 convention.
The line graphs indicate the number of confirmed members in the Synod divided by 1,500 (the lower bound
for electoral circuit formation; for comparison, in 1968, this figure would have been 1,252, slightly below
1998’s 1,301) and the number of member congregations divided by 7 (again, the lower bound; for
comparison, the 1968 figure was 783).
The heights of solid bars in Figure 1 (excluding the slashed portion at the top, which reflects visitation circuits
“combined away” into others to reach electoral circuit requirements—an increasingly prominent category)
represent the number of electoral circuits formed for each convention, the green (lower) bar, those meeting
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Figure 2: Proportion of Electoral and Visitation Circuits, Congregations, Confirmed Members, Non-SMP Pastors, and
Exceptions per Region, 2010 and 2026
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2. Characterization of Current Visitation and Electoral Circuits

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The Office of the President approved 497 electoral circuits for representation at the 2026 convention. Of
these, 375 were visitation circuits that satisfied the minimum requirements in their own right, 76 were pairs
of adjacent visitation circuits (11 of which had more than 20 congregations), and 12 were triples of adjacent
visitation circuits (8 of which had more than 20 congregations). 34 (7%) were under requirements and
received exceptions: 3, having fewer than 7 congregations; 31, having fewer than 1,500 members (4 of which
were pairs of adjacent visitation circuits); and none, having both fewer than 7 congregations and fewer than

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1998
Regular
Except < C
Congs/7

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2004

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2010

Except ?
Except < C < M
ConfMbrs/1500

Figure 1: Trends in LCMS Electoral Circuits, 1998–2026 Conventions

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2013

2016

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2023

2026

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Except < M
Combined w/ Adjacent(s)

Such averages are useful for general comparison over time of representation rates but obscure wide variance among actual circuits.
See details in Whitepaper I, note 2.
In 2026, many fewer exceptions were requested and granted in CEN, GL, and GP regions; the 2023 distribution of exceptions granted
was very similar to that for 2010.

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2026 Convention Workbook

Circuits and Congregations / 7 and Confirmed
Members / 1500

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Throughout the period of Figure 1, in comparison to the circumstances of 1969, when the present system was
put into use, the Synod has had, on average, fewer and increasingly fewer confirmed members in an
“average” electoral circuit than in 1969; it has also had fewer congregations per electoral circuit, although
this ratio has rebounded, in 2026, to near the 1969 level. In 1969, there were 11.5 member congregations and
3,928 confirmed members, on average, per electoral circuit; in 1998, there were 10 and 3,247; in 2023, 10.9
and 2,622; in 2026, 11.4 and 2,602. 1

OFFICER, BOARD, AND COMMISSION REPORTS

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This whitepaper provides a supplemental update, subsequent to circuit alignment for the 2026 convention
based on Statistical Year (SY) 2024 data, to the statistical and historical data provided in Whitepaper I. Due
to significant realignment in a number of districts, projections based on current state have changed
somewhat. A preliminary form of the data presented in this paper was available to the task force as it
assembled its proposal; it is hoped to be useful for the floor committee and convention as they consider the
task force proposal and any alternatives.

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the requirements and the red, yellow, and orange bars representing exceptions granted by the Office of the
President to those that did not.