# LCMS Convention Workbook_St. Louis Missouri_2026_S149
# Machine transcription, uncorrected — CHI Digital Archive (demonstration)

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number of exceptions that would be required in the next two conventions, it is clear that “doing nothing” is
not a realistic option. 11
Figure 4 adds another dimension of the 2023 convention circuit apportionment, indicating on the vertical
axis the number of congregations involved in each electoral circuit as well as (by the color of the dot) the
number of visitation circuits included in each combined electoral circuit. Confirmed member thresholds
are indicated as in Figure 3. The figure also distinguishes by color those electoral circuits formed of two or
three adjacent visitation circuits. Evident from the figure are the following:
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A number of circuits with very large congregations have been granted exceptions on the number of
congregations required, along with some more moderately-sized circuits (these fall below the
horizontal red bar).

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3. Characterization of Confirmed Membership Change

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The rate of confirmed membership change over time is a factor in the “stability” of circuit designations,
electoral circuit combinations, and the rate of requests for exceptions. Electoral circuit qualification is based
on the statistics gathered in the year prior to the convention (i.e., the 2023 convention relied on SY2021
confirmed membership data as of December 31, 2021, gathered by roughly June 2022; the 2026 convention
will rely on SY2024 data). District alignment of visitation regions, usually done at district conventions in the
year prior to the Synod convention, generally relies on the previous statistical year (SY), so districts have to
predict circuits likely to drop below requirements in the intervening year of data reporting.

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Through the period 1994–2022, the confirmed membership of the Synod has been decreasing at an
accelerating rate, with some regional variation. Figure 5 shows the triennial rate of confirmed membership
change throughout the period for each district and region (these data are presented to show the trend using
LOESS, or “locally-weighted scatterplot smoothing”). The confirmed membership of the Synod as a whole
was experiencing 2% triennial loss in 2003, 4% in 2011, 6% in 2016, and approaching 8% in 2023. In 2022,
the WSW Region was experiencing 9.5% triennial loss (with CNH and NOW districts reporting experiencing
12–13% reported triennial losses, despite having some of the greatest reporting lags in the Synod, which may
mean the actual reportable losses at present may be significantly higher). ESE, CEN, and GL regions are near
the Synod average, while the GP Region and non-geographic districts are experiencing 5–6% triennial losses.
This means an electoral circuit of 1,630 confirmed members at the time of one convention’s electoral circuit
qualification will likely have, all other things being equal, 1,500 for the next, and 1,380 for the one thereafter.
(In the WSW region, again, all other things being equal, a circuit would need 1,657 members at one
convention to have 1,500 for the next; and in the GP Region, 1,590.)

OFFICER, BOARD, AND COMMISSION REPORTS

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Exceptions based on confirmed membership are today numerous in the WSW and ESE regions;
many electoral circuits in all regions, however, are likely within one or two conventions of falling, all
things being equal, below that bar. With the greatest concentration of “optimized” circuits near
1,500 confirmed members and also the greatest historic confirmed member loss rates, the WSW and
ESE regions will continue to prove challenging for continuing apportionment of electoral circuits at
near-present levels.
A great number of circuits are also right at the minimum of 7 congregations, across all regions, and
are within one closure or merger of falling below that requirement (future closures are not modeled).
There are presently many adjacent visitation circuits combined for purposes of representation in the
ESE and WSW regions and nongeographic districts (orange and red dots), but fewer elsewhere.
In the WSW region, many of these combined circuits nonetheless require, or likely soon will,
exceptions for confirmed membership. A number of combined circuits, largely in the WSW, ESE, and
GP regions, have more than 20 congregations; as further combinations occur, perhaps to triplecircuit combinations rather than double, this can be expected to increase, perhaps markedly. This
may have a negative impact on the many far-flung congregations meeting together to determine
their representation or discuss. Electronic meeting is possible but has its own significant challenges.

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Figure 5: Triennial Rate of Reported Confirmed Member Gain / Loss by District / Region, 1994–2022
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Of course, one realistic option for “doing something” may be leaving requirements as they are, requiring districts to realign circuits
on the understanding that the Office of the President will likely control the number of exceptions granted to a reasonable and
customary level around 10%. It is important to note that any change recommended by the task force would impact, at the earliest,
the 2029 convention.
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Of course, these changes are not uniform within a given district. Figure 6 shows the distribution (in box-plot
form, with the colored portion of the box reflecting the two inner quartiles, or half the circuits) of recent rates
of confirmed membership change across the districts—a reminder that “all other things” are rarely equal. A
considerable number of circuits reported confirmed membership losses, over the past three years, of more

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2026 Convention Workbook

Figure 4: Confirmed Membership and Congregations of 2023 Electoral Circuits by Region (SY2021 data; confirmed
membership thresholds at 1,500, 1,630, and 1,792; see explanation of Figure 3 in text), Indicating Combined Circuits