# LCMS Convention Workbook_St. Louis Missouri_2019_S126
# Machine transcription, uncorrected — CHI Digital Archive (demonstration)

126

OFFICER, BOARD, AND COMMISSION REPORTS
ence as a thought leader of religious liberty,
life, marriage, and educational freedom in
the various partnerships and meetings that
we presently attend.
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And, the center will coalesce an ongoing Lutheran voice on the Hill for the support and
encouragement of those, especially LCMS
Lutherans, committed to our cause who are
at work in government.

To Expand Our Educational Initiatives
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To secure ongoing partnerships with one or
more Concordias—namely to finalize “the
University Educational Initiative” training
partnership, launching our university-level
program with DC internships.

Quarterly Report Date

Real Gross Domestic
Product

6/30/2016

1.90%

9/30/2016

1.80%

12/31/2016

1.80%

3/31/2017

3.00%

6/30/2017

2.80%

9/30/2017

2.30%

12/31/2017

2.20%

3/31/2018

4.20%

6/30/2018

3.40%

At the same time, the Federal Reserve continued its poli-

To expand our LCRLFreedom.org web
resource.

cy of “normalizing” interest rates. The Federal Open Market

To grow our weekend “Champions For Liberty” events around the country training the
laity for two-kingdom cultural engagement
concerning liberty, life, marriage, and education, all in service to the Church’s mission.

raising interest rates in December 2015. There have been nine

Gregory Seltz, Executive Director

Committee (the committee which sets monetary policy) began
rate increases since 2015, to the current rate of 2.50 percent.
Inflation, while increasing, appears to be stuck at or near the
Fed’s target rate of 2.00 percent by almost any measurement.
Housing, manufacturing, and retail sales all remained
strong throughout most of this period. However, in recent
months, we have begun to see some cracks. Housing starts,
existing home sales, and median sale prices have been slipping

R18

Lutheran Church Extension Fund:
“Joy:fully Lutheran:
Rejoice, Pray, Give Thanks”

recently after peaking in mid-2018. Manufacturing activity, as
measured by the ISM Manufacturing Index, has shown signs of
slowing. While manufacturing activity is still growing, the pace
of growth has slowed significantly in the past three months.
It appears that future federal funds rate increases are be-

Organization Mission Statement:

ing taken off the table. In three months, we moved from a 70

“To support the Church in fulfilling its mission
of sharing the Gospel
of Jesus Christ by being a Christ-centered
servant partner of the LCMS,
ensuring that funds and services
are available now and in the future.”

percent chance for a 25-basis point increase in the federal funds

The Lutheran Church Extension Fund (LCEF) is honored
to serve and support LCMS ministries in sharing the Gospel.
From July 1, 2016, through Dec. 31, 2018, the U.S. economy grew at an average real annualized rate of 2.70 percent.
Economic growth accelerated in 2018 as the short-term impact
of tax cuts spurred economic growth among both consumers
and corporations. During this same period, the unemployment
rate declined to a low of 3.70 percent. Fueled by higher wages,
rising consumer confidence, tax cuts, and plentiful jobs, U.S.
economic activity took off, hitting a peak of 4.20 percent in the
first quarter of 2018.
2019 Convention Workbook

target rate to basically a 0 percent chance. While we will likely
get at least one rate hike in calendar year 2019, it is likely to be
late in LCEF’s fiscal year or in fiscal year 2020.
Interest rates in the bond market appear to be range bound.
It is unlikely, given what we know currently, that interest rates
will rise significantly at any time. Indeed, there is a growing risk
that interest rates will drift lower. Equity markets should be stabilizing here soon after a 20 percent pullback in the broad market indices. Volatility, however, is likely to remain the byword
for 2019.
LCEF is pleased to report on the key financial trends and
activities of LCEF as of December 31, 2018, and prior fiscal
year-end data for years 2016–2018 below. For more current information, visit lcef.org or call 800-843-5233.