# LCMS Convention Proceedings_St. Louis Missouri_1950_S870
# Machine transcription, uncorrected — CHI Digital Archive (demonstration)

SEMINARIES AND COLLEGES 178

adopt a goal of having 50 per cent of our school-age children
in our schools.” Proceedings, 1947, page 312, Resolution 3.
(See Chart No, 13 and Tabulation No. 11.)

5. Number of pupils per teacher. Since 1920 the number of
pupils per teacher has decreased from 36 to 31 in 1947. For
purposes of future estimates a ratio of 30 pupils per teacher
was used. (See Tabulation No. 11.)

6. Annual loss of teachers. No accurate data are available to
indicate the annual loss of teachers; however, conservative
estimates would indicate that the tenure of regular men
teachers would not average over 33 years, or a 3-per-cent
annual loss; while women teachers would not average over
5 years’ service, or a 20-per-cent loss. The percentage of
‘women teachers has increased in recent years, so that now
about half of the teachers are regular men teachers and
half are women teachers or other temporary supply. For
the purposes of estimating future teacher demands the ratio
of half male teachers and half female teachers was used.
(See Tabulation No. 12.)

Two of the major factors discussed above present specific vari-

ables that were arbitrarily fixed at a conservative figure:

1. The first is that “school age” estimates did not include
kindergarten or 9th grade. The extension of our “school
age” by two years would automatically add 25 per cent to
the estimates.

2. The second factor is the ratio of regular men to women

teachers. Since the annual percentage loss of women teach-

ers is about seven times as great as for men teachers, |

a change in the ratio of -men to women would materially
alter the estimated annual demand.

Forecasts of the number of professional workers needed in
Synod will always raise serious doubts as to their validity. Past
experiences with “oversupply” and shortages seem to: indicate
that forecasts are colored by the economic cycle during which they
are made. This may be true; however, the present acute shortage
of professional workers would indicate that the “oversupply” in
the early thirties was, in fact, an “undersupply” of funds necessary
to meet the real needs. Recurrent economic cycles sharply affect
our ability to finance the needed personnel, but: do not directly
affect the need itself.

Synod, in 1947, resolved to strive to increase the percentage
of enrollment of school-age children from 30 per cent to 50 per

cent. The work of our Board for Parish Education and the fact.