# LCMS Convention Proceedings_St. Louis Missouri_1950_S860
# Machine transcription, uncorrected — CHI Digital Archive (demonstration)

SEMINARIES AND COLLEGES 168

rst course of policy named above, the second forecast: probably
the one which should be accepted. If, on the other hand, Synod
/< dopts the second course of policy, then the first forecast appears
4 to’ be the more appropriate. Only Synod can make the choice.
s If Synod adopts the second policy, it should be thoroughly
aware that its action commits it to a declining rate of growth in
; the future and to the necessity of adjusting all of its activities
;. accordingly. If it adopts the first policy, however, it thereby com-
4 mits itself to a stable rate of growth and also to the necessity of
f. developing the whole range of its activities and their instru-
mentalities, so that a constant rate of growth can be sustained.
; The implications of the latter course upon its educational system
& are by no means obscure.

The Third Forecast of Synod’s Growth and of Its Needs
for Ministerial Graduates, 1950 to 1980

,: While it is true that the first forecast is entirely acceptable
; if one kind of synodical policy is adopted, and that the second
pdforecast is equally acceptable if another kind of policy is pur-
. sued, your Board could not confidently formulate sound recom-
- mendations to Synod unless it accepted one, single, reasonable
© forecast of the future.

Intelligent planning is utterly impossible without a fairly
5. definite forecast of future needs. At the same time your Board
. knows full well that no forecast can accurately and dependably
, estimate the future by as much as thirty years in advance. Yet,
' such a forecast must nevertheless be made. If it is made with
4 care and prudence, and if it is regarded and used as a tentative
‘ device for indicating the probable direction of future trends, it
EF. can be a highly useful, thoroughly safe, and indeed indispensable
: basis for planning’ But it must not now be used as a foundation
- for plans which extend over the entire thirty-year period. It must
- be used only to make relatively short-term plans which then have
;. the benefit of some known relationship to a reasonably conceived
long-term point of view — however tentative the long-term esti-
. mate may be. Short-term planning simply must be done; but
short-term planning will also be short-sighted planning if it is
not done in relation to a long-term point of view.

The foregoing principles, which scarcely anyone will question,
indicated to your Board how the dilemma of the two competing
forecasts should be solved. The solution consists of a third, em-
pirical forecast of the number of ministerial graduates needed from
- 1950 to 1980. This third forecast is demonstrated in the following
chart.