# LCMS Convention Proceedings_St. Louis Missouri_1950_S859
# Machine transcription, uncorrected — CHI Digital Archive (demonstration)

160 SEMINARIES AND COLLEGES

The Lutheran Church——-Missouri Synod
Board fer Higher Education Growth Studies—March 1950

F— COMMUNICANTS PER PASTOR WHICH SYNOD WILL HAVE
BETWEEN 1950-1980, IF THE TRENDS FROM 1927-1947
CONTINUE UNCHANGED

Table 2
(2) (4)

Year Estimated number of Estimated number of
pastors who will be pastors needed to
in service if past provide one pastor for

trends continue every 315 communicants *

3,647 3,661
3,831 4,118
4,024 4,632
_ 4,227 5,210
4,440 5,860
4,664 6,591
4,899 7,097

* If the trend in communicant membership growth continues into © 4

the future.

The significant divergence of the two sets of figures is im-
mediately apparent.

The next step is to determine how many pastors must enter
the service in North America in the period of 1950 to 1980, so that
the total requirements as shown in column (4) may be met. This
calculation must include (a) the necessary annual net increase in
the total number of pastors and (b) the necessary annual replace-
ment of pastors who leave the service for any reason. For’ the
latter purpose a replacement rate of 2.7 per cent per year was used,
because this is the modal rate established by the experience of
the past 23 years. The results are the following.