# LCMS Convention Proceedings_St. Louis Missouri_1950_S857
# Machine transcription, uncorrected — CHI Digital Archive (demonstration)

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158 SEMINARIES AND COLLEGES

Chart C shows, at the left, the actual growth in the numbe
of communicants per pastor; and, at the right, the trend of thi
change.

Having determined the laws in terms of which communicant:4
members, pastors and missionaries in service, and the ratio of 4
communicants to pastors have changed in the proximate past, i
becomes an easy matter to project these laws into the proximate 4
future. It should be emphasized again that such a projection is -:
permissible only in terms of the specific assumptions which have a
been stated. i

The results of the projection of these laws of growth into the 3
31-year period, 1950 to 1980, are shown graphically in Charts D, 4
E, and F. The same data are shown in the following tables, but 4
at five-year intervals. 3

Table 1
(1) (2) @)
Year Estimated - Estimated Estimated
number of number of number of
communicant Pastors and communicants
members * missionaries per pastor ¢
in service t
1,153,300 3,647 316
1,297,200 3,831 339
1,459,100 4,024 363
1,641,200 4,227 388
1,846,000 4,440 416
2,076,300 4,664 445
2,335,400 4,899 477

* Based upon the formula of membership growth.
+ Based upon the formula of growth in number of pastors in service.
¢ Determined by dividing column (1) by column (2).

While there may be a question about the ideal ratio of com-
municants to pastors, there can be no: serious question about the
undesirability of the trend indicated in column (3). Indeed, it is
perhaps improbable that this trend could proceed much beyond
its present level (315 to 1) without reacting depressively upon
the growth of communicant membership.

Having forecast the movement of the three factors as shown
in Charts D, E, and F and in Table 1 (bearing in mind always the
assumptions upon which this second. forecast is based), it is
possible now to determine how many pastors in service would
be needed to maintain a ratio of 315 communicants per pastor. The
effect of this calculation and a comparison of the numbers so
derived with the numbers in column (2) of Table 1 are shown in
the following tabulation.