# LCMS Convention Proceedings_St. Louis Missouri_1950_S851
# Machine transcription, uncorrected — CHI Digital Archive (demonstration)

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152 SEMINARIES AND COLLEGES

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GROWTH STUDIES THE LUTHERAN CHhuRCH- Mtissouey, synod.

To PATLAMing POTERE MINISTERIAL Cannidare DaMAND To 1(9B0
Geand pee liens Esucation Jone 48

Interpretation

A projection of these three factors into the future suggests
the possibility of a normal annual demand of 210 ministerial candi-
dates by the decade, 1970 to 1980. Shortages and excessive supply
are deviations that can be expected in recurring cycles; however,
an educational system ready to supply this demand by 1980 is
indicated.

The capacity of our existing preparatory schools is adequate,
but the capacity of the seminaries is not adequate to supply
such demands. (For summary of figures cf. Tabulation No. 1)

The Second Forecast of Synod’s Growth and of Its Need
for Ministerial Graduates, 1950—1980

The assumptions which underlie this second forecast greatly
simplify the problem of estimating the future growth of Synod and
its need for pastors. All that is necessary is to discover the law of
Synod’s growth in the proximate past, and then to apply this same
law to the future. Such a procedure is permissible, to be sure,
only in terms of the assumptions upon which this forecast is based.