# LCMS Convention Proceedings_St. Louis Missouri_1950_S849
# Machine transcription, uncorrected — CHI Digital Archive (demonstration)

until the ratio of communicants to total population is eq
to the ratio which obtained at the turn of the century, 4
Accordingly, a ratio of 1 to 108 by 1980 was assumed. 3

The population forecasts used in this study are tho
published by the United States Bureau of Census dated
June 9, 1947, They are most conservative. Maximum;
medium, and minimum forecasts are contained in the Census
Bureau report. The medium fertility and medium mortality

forecasts, without increase due to immigration, were chosen

GHART Ne2.

SHOWING RATIO OF COMMUNICANTS to PepuLa

GROWTH STUDIES - THELUTHERAN cHuRcH- MISSOURY SYNOD}.
Te DETERMINE TOTURE MINIS TERIAL CANDIDATE DEMANS To 19 Bo, ‘
Bones zoe Hianeer Bovcartten prev’

as the population data for this stud
recommends that the mediu
be used.

Another indication of the ultraconservative estimates a
used in the study is the fact that the rapidly growing
Canadian population was not included.

y. The census report itself
m figures plus immigration

2. Number of communicants per pastor.

It is interesting to note that the number of communicants |
per pastor decreased from 1900 to 1930, but that a rapid risé *
took place between 1930 and 1947. In 1900, the ratio was:

1 to 263; in 1930: 1 to 243; but in 1947 it was 1 to 295
(Chart No. 3.)

The indicated trend ‘may be interpreted by some as
a favorable one; it appears, however, that the ever-increas-
ing demands on a pastor’s time (particularly for direct *