# LCMS Convention Proceedings_St. Louis Missouri_1950_S848
# Machine transcription, uncorrected — CHI Digital Archive (demonstration)

SEMINARIES AND COLLEGES 151

mission activity) would force the conclusion that the trend
is an unfavorable one. If we continue our efforts to maintain
the current rate of growth, pastors in congregations will
automatically be required to supervise lay activity in mission
efforts and will need much more time for adult education,
pastoral counseling, etc., than was incumbent upon pastors
of a generation ago when, as the figures show, a slower rate
of growth existed. The study assumes, therefore, that the
trend in communicants per pastor will gradually be reversed
and that by 1980 a ratio of 1 to 250 (same ratio as 1920) will
be reached. (Chart No. 3.)

CHART Nod

SHOWING NUMBER 0§ COMNMUNICANTS PER PAsTeR:

OM MY NICANTS
£2 PAsToR

ea
SSS

<
P

Is

°

. Ratio of pastors leaving the service annually to total pastors
in service.

A factual study of the number of pastors in service
shows that there was a net increase of at least 1,300 in the
number of pastors in parish service in our Synod from 1917
to 1947. The projection of this same rate of growth over
the next 30 years would give us 6,000 in such service by
1980. (Chart No. 4.)

The number of candidates annually required to supply
the needs created by vacancies due to retirement, death, or
calls into other fields (foreign missions, professors, wel-
fare posts, etc.) is assumed to be in direct proportion to
the total number of pastors serving congregations or stations.
Statistics of this group were more difficult to obtain, but
figures for the last 27 years indicate an average (mean)
annual loss of 2.4 per cent of the total pastors in parish
service. It will be apparent, in the light of the increasing
effectiveness of our retirement program and of the ever-
increasing demands for theologically trained personnel in
our educational, administrational, and welfare activities,
that this figure is most conservative. (Chart No. 5.)