# LCMS Convention Proceedings_St. Louis Missouri_1950_S846
# Machine transcription, uncorrected — CHI Digital Archive (demonstration)

SEMINARIES AND COLLEGES 149

: ieved if much shorter periods of time were used. Even in the
cade-by-decade projection it should be remembered that recur-
‘eycles of overproduction and underproduction are likely to
cur, but these are expected to average out, at the figures shown,
rer the decades indicated.
Finally, we need to remind ourselves once more that any
ing done in 1950 cannot affect our outcomes much before
. This fact makes it all the more urgent to act without delay.
‘ The supply of candidates for the ministry of The Lutheran
hurch — Missouri Synod should be planned adequately for future
eds, but with due regard for the danger of preparing more candi-
dates than can be absorbed by the Church. It is therefore necessary
that some predictions of future requirements be attempted.
bviously it is impossible to foresee all factors that may materially
ect an estimate of supply and demand. This deficiency does not,
mhowever, vitiate the results obtained from a study of factors
ecting demand in the past and a projection of these factors
to the future.
Although they are not complete for the entire period, the
statistics of the past one hundred years present some interesting
d useful facts. An examination of the data for the entire century
readily reveals that the period from 1900 to 1947 presents more
=.icomplete and accurate figures. Since, apparently, no changes would
sult even if the earlier figures were ignored, we have studied the
Ristatistics from 1900 to 1947 most intently.

Three factors are of prime importance in a calculation of
e anticipated demand for ministerial candidates:

1. Ratio of communicant members to total population in the
United States.

In our Church this ratio remained fairly constant to
1930. It was approximately 1 to 175. The rate of growth in
our Church was only slightly higher up to about 1930 than
the rate of population growth in the United States. By 1947
the ratio of communicants to total population had increased
to 1 to 130. .

No doubt many factors contributed to our rapid growth.
We must assume that our Synod will not and cannot be
satisfied to remain in a constant or static relation to the
total United States population. It must continue its growth
if it remains alert to its objectives. However, it would be
hazardous to assume that the current rapid rate of growth
will continue. If the impetus which created the current
accelerated growth lasts for another ten to fifteen years,