# LCMS Convention Proceedings_St. Louis Missouri_1950_S144
# Machine transcription, uncorrected — CHI Digital Archive (demonstration)

SEMINARIES AND COLLEGES 141

ministerial graduates no later than 1975. By making prep-
arations to accommodate this number by 1964, we are at
worst only anticipating our most conservative predictions by
eleven years. If, on the other hand, the higher and more
optimistic predictions of synodical growth and ministerial
needs should prove in time to have been correct, we shall
have made at least the minimum preparations for them be-
fore it is too late.
The achievement of an institutional capacity to produce 200
. graduates by 1964 absolutely requires:
a. The establishment and operation of a senior college no
later than 1957;
b. The immediate implementation of substantially the pol-
icies which the Board for Higher Education is recom-
mending to Synod in 1950.

. Synod must insist that the Board for Higher Education dur-
ing the next ten years, from 1950 to 1960, closely and reg-
ularly observe the actual growth of Synod and its needs for
ministerial graduates, and that the Board regularly check
the developing experiences of Synod against the tentatively
accepted forecast of 1950. This regular comparison of actual
events with predicted events will gradually disclose the
measure of the accuracy of the 1950 forecast (third forecast).
Thus it will be possible, intelligently and confidently, as
time moves on, to advance the more precise planning farther
and farther into the future. _

The 1950 forecast should furnish a tentative course for the
next thirty years, to which we can prudently and safely
commit ourselves up to 1964, but which we shall have to
adjust from time to time during the next ten years so that
we may then confidently plan beyond 1964,

By proceeding in this manner, we shall know our immediate
course, and we shall also have some indication of a long-
range course, from which we shall expect, however, to de-
viate as time unfolds events and their meaning.

. Finally, we should remind ourselves once more that every
phase of our work depends, under God, on an adequate
supply of trained workers, The proposals made here are
based solely on experience and future needs in the North
American parish ministry. The glorious expansion of our
missions as it is now developing in other parts of the world,
all special Services, and any faster rate of growth in our

local work would require manpower beyond that indicated
in this report.