# LCMS Convention Proceedings_St. Louis Missouri_1950_S140
# Machine transcription, uncorrected — CHI Digital Archive (demonstration)

SEMINARIES AND COLLEGES 187

An Interpretation of the First and Second Forecasts

Even a cursory examination of the first and the second fore-
will at once disclose the wide divergence of their respective
casts The second forecast estimates the needs of Synod for
oo tre and missionaries, from 1950 to 1980, at a much higher level
Dae nes the first forecast. The first forecast estimates that by
then Synod would need about 210 graduates from its theological
1 e aview the second forecast estimates that Synod would need

at least 370 such graduates by 1980 — nearly twice as many.

The difference between the two estimates is to be explained _

entirely by the difference between the assumptions which underlie
the two forecasts. By far the most important of these differing
assumptions are the following. The first forecast assumes that the
declining rate of growth in total population will be accompanied
by a declining rate of growth in the communicant membership
of the Missouri Synod. The second forecast, on the other hand,
assumes that the declining rate of growth in population will have
no effect, at least by 1980, upon the rate of growth of our Synod.
The conflict between these two assumptions cannot be settled by
statistical method. It can be resolved only by the wise judgment
of calm and experienced men invoking the guidance of God.
But it is equally important to observe that both forecasts also
have certain assumptions in common. One of these is extremely
significant. It is the assumption, adopted in both forecasts, that
the congregations and Districts of Synod will be willing and able
actually to absorb the number of entrants into the pastorate which
either of the two forecasts indicates to be desirable. Now, no one
can either prove or disprove this assumption. Moreover, it is not

particularly important to decide whether the assumption is valid . -

and reasonable or not.
Policy Is Decisive

There is something else connected with this assumption which
is, however, extremely important. And that is the kind of policy
which Synod adopts with respect to the absorption of additional
pastors. If Synod consciously makes it a matter of formal policy
that its congregations and Districts should absorb the number
of pastors which calm judgment indicates to be desirable for the

The conflict between the outcomes of the two forecasts can
thus be resolved in the following manner. If Synod adopts the