# LCMS Convention Proceedings_St. Louis Missouri_1950_S132
# Machine transcription, uncorrected — CHI Digital Archive (demonstration)

SEMINARIES AND COLLEGES 129

means of standard statistical methods, the mathematical
la By growth were determined as accurately as possible for the
ws

following three phenomena:

a. The growth of communicant membership of the Missouri
Synod in the United States and Canada over the 21 years
from 1927 to 1947. The law of this growth has been estab-
lished and checked by an exponential equation * accurate
to within only about one quarter of one per cent of error.
The formula discloses that the normal rate of annual growth
in communicant membership from 1927 to 1947 was 2.42 per

cent per year.
b. The growth of the number of pastors and missionaries in
service in the United States and Canada over the 17 year
period from 1931 to 1947. The law of this growth is expressed
also by an exponential equation * which shows that the
supply of pastors and missionaries in service has been
increasing at a normal annual rate of only .99 of one per

cent per year.

c. The change in the ratio of communicant members per pastor
over the 21 years from 1927 to 1947. It was not necessary
to develop a formula for this phenomenon, because the
normal values could easily be determined from the two
formulas already developed.

The meaning of the foregoing laws is plainly described in
graphic form in Charts A, B, and C.

Chart A shows, at the left, the actual growth of communicant
membership from 1927 to 1947; and, at the right, the trend of
this growth as determined by the mathematical law stated above.
It is obvious that the trend line scarcely differs from the actual
growth line.

Chart B shows, at the left, the actual growth of the number
of pastors in service from 1927 to 1947; and, at the right, the trend
of this growth. Clearly, the trend line agrees closely with the actual
line. What is highly significant, however, is the relationship of the
trend in Chart A to the trend in Chart B. Our communicant mem-
bership has been growing at a much higher rate than our supply
of pastors (2.42 and .99 per cent respectively). We have been
adding communicants almost two and one-half times as rapidly
as we have been adding pastors, and we have been doing this
steadily for two decades!

* Available upon request