# LCMS Convention Proceedings_St. Louis Missouri_1950_S128
# Machine transcription, uncorrected — CHI Digital Archive (demonstration)

SEMINARIES AND COLLEGES 125

a decreasing rate of growth may be anticipated after that,
until the ratio of communicants to total population is equal
to the ratio which obtained at the turn of the century.
Accordingly, a ratio of 1 to 108 by 1980 was assumed.

The population forecasts used in this study are those
published by the United States Bureau of Census dated
June 9, 1947. They are most conservative. Maximum,
medium, and minimum forecasts are contained in the Census
Bureau report. The medium fertility and medium mortality
forecasts, without increase due to immigration, were chosen

GHART Nez.

SHOWING RATIO OF COMMUNIGCANTS TO PepuLation in Percany.

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Te DETERMIN® FOTURE MIMNISTEQIAL CANDIDATE DEMAND Te 1980, ,
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as the population data for this study. The census report itself
recommends that the medium figures plus immigration
be used.

Another indication of the ultraconservative estimates
used in the study is the fact that the rapidly growing
Canadian population was not included.

2. Number of communicants per pastor.

It is interesting to note that the number of communicants
per pastor decreased from 1900 to 1930, but that a rapid rise
took place between 1930 and 1947. In 1900, the ratio was:
1 to 263; in 1930: 1 to 243; but in 1947 it was 1 to 295.
(Chart No. 3.) .

The indicated trend may be interpreted by. some as
a favorable one; it appears, however, that the ever-increas-
ing demands on a pastor’s time (particularly. for direct