# LCMS Convention Proceedings_St. Louis Missouri_1950_S127
# Machine transcription, uncorrected — CHI Digital Archive (demonstration)

124 SEMINARIES AND COLLEGES

achieved if much shorter periods of time were used. Even in gy
decade by decade projection it should be remembered that recurd
ring cycles of overproduction and underproduction are likely j
occur, but these are expected to average out, at the figures shown
over the decades indicated. 4

Finally, we need to remind ourselves once more that any!
planning done in 1950 cannot affect our outcomes much bef
1960. This fact makes it all the more urgent to act without delayJ

The supply of candidates for the ministry of The Lutheray#
Church — Missouri Synod should be planned adequately for future®
needs, but with due regard for the danger of preparing more candj-J
dates than can be absorbed by the Church. It is therefore n
that some predictions of future requirements be attempted,
Obviously it is impossible to foresee all factors that may materially
affect an estimate of supply and demand. This deficiency does not,
however, vitiate the results obtained from a study of factors #
affecting demand in the past and a projection of these factory
into the future. a

Although they are not complete for the entire period, the#
statistics: of the past one hundred years present some interesting i
and useful facts. An examination of the data for the entire century{
readily reveals that the period from 1900 to 1947 presents more}
complete and accurate figures. Since, apparently, no changes would
result even if the earlier figures were ignored, we have studied hee
statistics from 1900 to 1947 most intently. oe

Three factors are of prime importance in a calculation off
the anticipated demand for ministerial candidates: 4

1. Ratio of communicant members to total population in ad
United States. ;

In our Church this ratio remained fairly constant toy
1930. It was approximately 1 to 175. The rate of growth in:
our Church was‘only slighter higher up to about 1930 than’
the rate of population growth in the United States. By ot:
the ratio of communicants to total population had inert
to 1 to 130.
No doubt many factors contributed to our rapid growths

We must assume that our Synod will not and cannot be;
satisfied to remain in a constant or static relation to they
total United States population. It must continue its growth;
if it remains alert to its objectives. However, it would be’
hazardous to assume that the current rapid rate of growth:
will continue. If the impetus. which created the current
accelerated growth lasts for another ten to fifteen years

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