# LCMS Convention Proceedings_St. Louis Missouri_1950_S125
# Machine transcription, uncorrected — CHI Digital Archive (demonstration)

122 SEMINARIES AND COLLEGES

a. Assumptions which are the same in the first and in J

second forecasts:

1) That the Holy Ghost is-the one and the only catigg
communicant membership, that there is no other a:
tributing cause whatever, and that He works +} oT
the Word and the Sacraments. bs

2) That the Word will be preached in the Missouri Sy,4
in North America with about the same vigor and ,,
from 1950 to 1980 as it was during the past

decades.

3) That the population in the United States wil]

tinue to increase, but at a declining rate of incr
4) That the congregations and Districts in North Am
will in the future be both willing and able to ab
the number of pastors necessary to achieve some q
sirable ratio of communicants per pastor.
b. Assumptions which are not the same in both foree:

First Forecast

1) That there will not be enough
persons in the United States
-from' 1950 to 1980 to enable
our Synod to maintain the
.rate of growth which it en-
joyed in the, past two to
three decades.

2) That the rate of growth in
the Missouri Synod will de-
cline from 1950 to 1980, but
not as rapidly as the decline

~ din the wate of growth of pop-..

:rullation, ;

Second Forecast

1) That there will be enoy
persons in the United Sta
from 1950 to 1980 to enab
our Synod to maintain {
rate of growth which it e
joyed in the past two to three?
decades.

2) That the rate of growth
the Missouri Synod need
at all decline from 1950
1980; but that it can

‘should remain the same as if
was in the past two to thre
decades.

3) 1 ‘That an average ratio of 250 3) That.an.average-ratio of 3

communicants per pastor is
ultimately desirable.

4) That the Holy Ghost will 4)

operate under significantly
different conditions from
1950 to 1980.

communicants per

(the -approximate ec
' ratio) should be maintai
That the Holy Ghost vil
operate under substantially
the same conditions
1950 to 1980.

It is these differing assumptions which largely explain the difg
fering outcomes of the two forecasts.