# LCMS Convention Proceedings_St. Louis Missouri_1950_S124
# Machine transcription, uncorrected — CHI Digital Archive (demonstration)

SEMINARIES AND COLLEGES 121

orecasting is never, of course, an attempt to
an attempt at F effort to estimate the effect of a cause oper-
foresee. der certain known or assumed conditions. If the cause
ate co rrectly identified, and if the conditions under which the
can will operate can be correctly appraised, the effect can be
ca icted with a degree of accuracy limited only by the fore-
annie experience with the three elements of cause, condition,
Your Board prepared, actually, a series of three forecasts —
the first in June, 1948; the second in November, 1949; and the
third in February, 1950. Each of the three forecasts is included
in this report. Because the three forecasts differ markedly in their
outcomes, and because, therefore, they may easily lead to con-
fusion in the minds of those who read them, the following ex-
planations are provided in the hope that they will serve to avoid
confusion.
1. In th first and in the second forecasts the same basic steps
are involved, namely,

a. An analysis of past growth of communicant membership
in the Missouri Synod, in the United States and Canada
only.

b. A forecast of probable growth in communicant member-
ship in North America from 1950 to 1980.

c. An estimate of the number of pastors who should be in
active service in the years from 1950 to 1980, so that the
estimated increase in communicant membership can be
achieved.

d. An estimate of the number of students who should be
graduated from our theological seminaries, so that the
estimated needs for pastors in service can be supplied.

2. The third forecast is a more or less arbitrary compromise
between the first and the second. The first forecast sug-
gests that the number of seminary graduates should be
increased from about 150 in 1950 to about 220 in 1980. The
second forecast, on the other hand, indicates that the num-
ber of seminary graduates needs to be increased from about

180 in 1950 to about 370 in 1980. Obviously, the forecasts

are in sharp disagreement. In the third forecast, this dis- »

agreement is reconciled.

3. The disagreement between the first and the second fore-
casts results chiefly from differences in the assumptions
which underlie the two forecasts. The following list of

basic assumptions indicates where the two agree and where
they differ.